On “Pessimism” and “Optimism” about Climate Change; and on SRM as a “Cheap Fix”
Let’s imagine the most optimistic climate change scenario for a century from now, without going completely bonkers. To do that, let’s first split up greenhouse gas emissions (CO₂-equivalent or “CO₂e”) into non-residual and residual emissions. The latter are emissions that are difficult or impossible to (fully) eliminate due to technological or other limitations. In our scenario, non-residual emissions — that is, emissions that we can actually reduce with current technology and without disastrous socio-economic impacts — continue to grow a little bit for a while (as they do in reality), but the curve starts bending down soon (which is a...
SotA-R-5: Modeling Carbon Emissions in Stage 1 of the Anthropocene – a First Attempt
(This is part 5 of the “Stages of the Anthropocene, Revisited” Series (SotA-R).) Important Note (March 3, 2022) Due to a fundamental flaw in models 1, 2, and 3 in this series, the predictions for average global warming in this article are unreliable. Update (May 21, 2022) Model 4 fixes this problem and predicts +3.7°C. The aim of this series is a better prediction of the long-term prospects for human civilization (in the context of climate change) than the rather sketchy predictions made in Stages of the Anthropocene three years ago. The previous episodes in this series discussed some relavant...
SotA-R-2: Drought and Its Effects in the 2030s and 40s
(This is part 2 of the “Stages of the Anthropocene, Revisited” Series (SotA-R).) Of all climate-change-related disasters, drought may very well be the worst. While other kinds of disasters might look more disastrous because of the clearly visible damage they cause, droughts destroys livelihoods. Drought is associated with water shortages (obviously), crop failures, famine, migration/refugees, and violent conflict (including civil war and war). Furthermore, droughts tend to affect larger areas, and the effects are, therefore, widespread. Persistent drought can make once fertile and pleasant lands inhospitable or even uninhabitable. For these reasons, significant changes in global precipitation patterns can have...
On the Fragility of Civilization
(This is part 2 in the No Time for Utopia series.) Doom has always been a major attraction for some, perhaps even many people. There are whole subgenres of extreme (heavy) metal built on the aesthetics of death, doom, and decay. But “doom” in the form of extreme pessimism about the (near) future is also increasingly common in discussions about climate change and its effects. In Stages of the Anthropocene I tried to look into the more distant future. Whether what I found is an example of “doom” in this sense is debatable – at least I didn’t predict human...
Crisis and Inertia (2) – Climate Change
(This is part 2 in the “Crisis and Inertia” series.) Surprisingly many people seem to be under the impression that climate change won’t really affect them. “Sure, it will get a little bit warmer, but that’s what air conditioners are for, and sea level rise doesn’t really affect me because I don’t live on the coast and it is slow anyway.” Something like that appears to be general idea. Unfortunately, that idea is wrong. Very wrong. Climate change will have much bigger effects than air conditioners and coastal protection can fix. The exact nature of those effects is uncertain, however,...