SotA-R-10: Combined Models 4 and 5 Suggest 62% Change of Exceeding 3ยฐC of Average Global Warming
(This is part 9 of the โStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedโ Series (SotA-R).) The previous episode in this series explained a few problems of the last iteration of the model used to better understand feedbacks between climate change and socio-political and economic circumstances (i.e. โModel 4โ). Additionally, in another recent post, I mentioned that the relation between atmospheric carbon and warming is probably better treated as linear, with time lag explaining the discrepancy between a linear equation and the current level of warming. Furthermore, that post also addressed the issue of tipping points (and other neglected feedbacks), leading to an...
A Theory of Disaster-Driven Societal Collapse and How to Prevent It
(abstract) โ One of the effects of climate change is an increase in extreme weather and natural disasters. Unless COโ emissions are significantly reduced very soon, it is inevitable that the effects of disaster will exceed many (and ultimately all) societiesโ mitigation capacity. Compounding unmitigated disaster effects will slowly but surely push a society towards collapse. Because no part of the planet is safe from the increase in natural disaster intensity and because some of the effects of disasters โ such as refugees and economic decline โ spill over boundaries, this will eventually lead to global societal collapse. Furthermore, just...
On the Fragility of Civilization
(This is part 2 in the No Time for Utopia series.) Doom has always been a major attraction for some, perhaps even many people. There are whole subgenres of extreme (heavy) metal built on the aesthetics of death, doom, and decay. But โdoomโ in the form of extreme pessimism about the (near) future is also increasingly common in discussions about climate change and its effects. In Stages of the Anthropocene I tried to look into the more distant future. Whether what I found is an example of โdoomโ in this sense is debatable โ at least I didnโt predict human...
A Toy Model of Production Costs and Supply
In Economics as Malignant Make Believe I showed that the derivation of the supply curve in mainstream (neoclassical) economics is nonsense because production costs are nothing like they are assumed to be. This made me wonder, however, what would happen if youโd use a more realistic model of production costs โ What would production and supply look like then? This isnโt that hard to model, so I built a simulation model on a free afternoon. In the following, I will first explain the model and after that I will discuss the results of running the model at different settings as...