On โPessimismโ and โOptimismโ about Climate Change; and on SRM as a โCheap Fixโ
Letโs imagine the most optimistic climate change scenario for a century from now, without going completely bonkers. To do that, letโs first split up greenhouse gas emissions (COโ-equivalent or โCOโeโ) into non-residual and residual emissions. The latter are emissions that are difficult or impossible to (fully) eliminate due to technological or other limitations. In our scenario, non-residual emissions โ that is, emissions that we can actually reduce with current technology and without disastrous socio-economic impacts โ continue to grow a little bit for a while (as they do in reality), but the curve starts bending down soon (which is a...
SotA-R-5: Modeling Carbon Emissions in Stage 1 of the Anthropocene โ a First Attempt
(This is part 5 of the โStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedโ Series (SotA-R).) Important Note (March 3, 2022) Due to a fundamental flaw in models 1, 2, and 3 in this series, the predictions for average global warming in this article are unreliable. Update (May 21, 2022) Model 4 fixes this problem and predicts +3.7ยฐC. The aim of this series is a better prediction of the long-term prospects for human civilization (in the context of climate change) than the rather sketchy predictions made in Stages of the Anthropocene three years ago. The previous episodes in this series discussed some relavant...
SotA-R-3: Heat and Cyclones
(This is part 3 of the โStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedโ Series (SotA-R).) Drought is (obviously) not the only kind of disaster caused by climate change, although it is probably the most severe in terms of its (long term) effects. Other types of โnaturalโ disaster that have to be taken into account given the purpose of this series include heatwaves, storms, and other forms of extreme weather. The focus in the present article will be on heat and tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons). heat While there are several papers projecting aspects of heat as an effect of climate change,...
On the Fragility of Civilization
(This is part 2 in the No Time for Utopia series.) Doom has always been a major attraction for some, perhaps even many people. There are whole subgenres of extreme (heavy) metal built on the aesthetics of death, doom, and decay. But โdoomโ in the form of extreme pessimism about the (near) future is also increasingly common in discussions about climate change and its effects. In Stages of the Anthropocene I tried to look into the more distant future. Whether what I found is an example of โdoomโ in this sense is debatable โ at least I didnโt predict human...