SotA-R-10: Combined Models 4 and 5 Suggest 62% Change of Exceeding 3Ā°C of Average Global Warming
(This is part 9 of the āStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedā Series (SotA-R).) The previous episode in this series explained a few problems of the last iteration of the model used to better understand feedbacks between climate change and socio-political and economic circumstances (i.e. āModel 4ā). Additionally, in another recent post, I mentioned that the relation between atmospheric carbon and warming is probably better treated as linear, with time lag explaining the discrepancy between a linear equation and the current level of warming. Furthermore, that post also addressed the issue of tipping points (and other neglected feedbacks), leading to an...
SotA-R-9: Some Comments on Model 4 (and Another Error)
[(This is part 9 of the āStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedā Series (SotA-R).) The latest iteration of the model I have been developing in this series in an attempt to predict how much carbon we are going to emit in stage 1 of the anthropocene predicted that weāll heat up the planet by about 3.3Ā°C (67% interval: 2.3~5.0Ā°C), and that this will imply (or involve) widespread famines, civil war, refugee crises, and societal collapse. Rather than take that prediction for granted, it seemed a better idea to compare this prediction with some other predictions, and to have a closer look...
SotA-R-8: Climate/Society Feedback Model 4 Predicts 3.7Ā°C of Average Global Warming
(This is part 8 of the āStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedā Series (SotA-R).) (This post was updated on July 28.) ā Earlier this year I found a serious error in the equations I was using to calculate warming due to carbon emissions. As explained in March, this meant that the climate/society feedback models presented in the previous three episodes in this series were all wrong, and thus that I needed to patch up the latest iteration of those models. The result of that āpatching upā is model 4, which is mostly identical to model 3. The only differences are the...
SotA-R-7: Current Models Predict 4Ā°C of Global Warming
(This is part 7 of the āStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedā Series (SotA-R).) Important Note (March 3, 2022) Due to a fundamental flaw in models 1, 2, and 3 in this series, the predictions for average global warming in this article are unreliable. Update (May 21, 2022) Model 4 fixes this problem and predicts +3.7Ā°C. Thereās no plausible peaceful path to carbon-neutrality. If thereās one key takeaway from my attempts to model carbon (COā-equivalent) emissions in stage 1 of the anthropocene, itās that. Oh, and thatās it will get hot, of course. Unpleasantly hot. This the fourth in a series...
SotA-R-6: Modeling Carbon Emissions ā New Results, and Thoughts on Further Models
(This is part 6 of the āStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedā Series (SotA-R).) Important Note (March 3, 2022) Due to a fundamental flaw in models 1, 2, and 3 in this series, the predictions for average global warming in this article are unreliable. Update (May 21, 2022) Model 4 fixes this problem and predicts +3.7Ā°C. As mentioned in the section ālimitations and alternative approachesā of the previous episode in this series, there were a couple of things I wanted to change in the model (i.e. spreadsheet) used to simulate global carbon (COā-equivalent) emissions in stage 1 of the anthropocene. The...
SotA-R-5: Modeling Carbon Emissions in Stage 1 of the Anthropocene ā a First Attempt
(This is part 5 of the āStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedā Series (SotA-R).) Important Note (March 3, 2022) Due to a fundamental flaw in models 1, 2, and 3 in this series, the predictions for average global warming in this article are unreliable. Update (May 21, 2022) Model 4 fixes this problem and predicts +3.7Ā°C. The aim of this series is a better prediction of the long-term prospects for human civilization (in the context of climate change) than the rather sketchy predictions made in Stages of the Anthropocene three years ago. The previous episodes in this series discussed some relavant...
SotA-R-4: Preliminary Notes on Modeling Carbon Emission Scenarios in Stage 1 of the Anthropocene
(This is part 4 of the āStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedā Series (SotA-R).) The purpose of this series is an update of the mid- and long-term prediction of aspects of the global climate relevant for the prospects of continuing human civilization in Stages of the Anthropocene. The idea is to develop a model that can be relatively easily expanded, fine-tuned, and corrected when new or better information becomes available. The present episode in the series consists of a number of notes of a relatively technical nature on how to build this model. COā emissions and economic growth The level of...
SotA-R-3: Heat and Cyclones
(This is part 3 of the āStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedā Series (SotA-R).) Drought is (obviously) not the only kind of disaster caused by climate change, although it is probably the most severe in terms of its (long term) effects. Other types of ānaturalā disaster that have to be taken into account given the purpose of this series include heatwaves, storms, and other forms of extreme weather. The focus in the present article will be on heat and tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons). heat While there are several papers projecting aspects of heat as an effect of climate change,...
SotA-R-2: Drought and Its Effects in the 2030s and 40s
(This is part 2 of the āStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedā Series (SotA-R).) Of all climate-change-related disasters, drought may very well be the worst. While other kinds of disasters might look more disastrous because of the clearly visible damage they cause, droughts destroys livelihoods. Drought is associated with water shortages (obviously), crop failures, famine, migration/refugees, and violent conflict (including civil war and war). Furthermore, droughts tend to affect larger areas, and the effects are, therefore, widespread. Persistent drought can make once fertile and pleasant lands inhospitable or even uninhabitable. For these reasons, significant changes in global precipitation patterns can have...
Stages of the Anthropocene, Revisited
(This is part 1 of the āStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedā Series (SotA-R).) In Stages of the Anthropocene (2018), I argued that if one aims to make mid- or long-term predictions of the effects of climate change on human civilization, it is useful (if not necessary) to distinguish three phases or stages within the time period known as the āanthropoceneā. There is some disagreement about when the anthropocene started ā the industrial revolution (mid 18th century) and the advent of the atomic age (mid 20th century) have been suggested, and an argument has even been made for the emergence of...
Predictions
A year ago, I predicted that the Covid19 pandemic would kill 35 million or even more people. Although mortality statistics suggest that the current official death count (about two and a half million at the time of writing) significantly underestimates the real number of deaths, it is also becoming increasingly unlikely that weāll reach numbers anywhere near that pessimistic prediction any time soon. The reason why my prediction was so far off is the same reason why many other predictions fail: they insufficiently take into account that human behavior changes in response to changes in circumstances. Typically, models used to...