Predicting Global Warming for Dummies
Climate scientists use supercomputers and extremely complicated models to predict the future climate, but there is a shortcut that can be used to predict average global warming. The key to that shortcut is the following simple formula: $$ \Delta T_{anom.} = \frac {ECS \times ( C_{atm.} β 280 )} {280} \: – \: \psi,$$ in which \(\Delta T_{anom.}\) is the average temperature anomaly (or average global warming), \(ECS\) is βEquilibrium Climate Sensitivityβ, \(C_{atm.}\) is atmospheric carbon (in ppm COβ equivalent), and \(\psi\) (from Greek ΟαΏ¦ΟΞΏΟ, meaning βcoldβ) stands for various cooling effects. If you have the values of the variables...
Some Further Comments on Climate Sensitivity and Warming Estimates
While preparing an update of Carbon-Neutrality by 2050 (by far the most accessed page in this blog), I had another look at (equilibrium) climate sensitivity (ECS), a topic about which a wrote a few times before. ECS is the expected global temperature anomaly (i.e., the expected global average of warming) at twice the pre-industrial level of greenhouse gases (mainly COβ) in the atmosphere (i.e., 560ppm, as βpre-industrialβ is set at 280ppm). The currently most widely accepted estimate of ECS is that by Steve Sherwood and colleagues, who suggest average warming of 3.1Β°C (median; 66% uncertainty range: 2.6~3.9Β°C; 95%: 2.3~4.7Β°C). However,...